Caulfield Guineas Contender Wassergeist – Live 50/1 Chance

The very astute Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young yard look to have a live Caulfield Guineas contender on their hands in the form of their very well bred Fastnet Rock 3yo colt Wassergeist.

We spotted this well bred type when it flashed big closing pars at Sandown over 1300m finishing 2nd to highly regarded type Aberro. In fact it can be said Wassergeist was very much unlucky and should have won with a bit to spare.

It is interesting to note the Stewards Report from that day…. “16 Aug 2017 – Stewards Advice Post Race Rider Craig Williams was questioned regarding the tactics he adopted today and he explained he was given no specific instructions, and that his personal preference on the Lakeside track was to take up a forward position, but after jumping awkwardly from the wide barrier, he was left with no other option but to ride the horse back in the field, noting it was only having its second race start today.”

So it seems fairly clear that Craig Williams had a preference to be more forward on Wassergeist and the fact he had a rather checkered run entering the stretch there is merit in the motion that he should have won with a bit in hand.

This brings us to the horse that got the better of Wassergeist that day, Aberro! The All Too Hard colt put the writing on the wall on debut with a hard closing 1.7l 2nd to Merchant Navy who is now 4 from 4 and one of our top seen “proven form” contenders for the Caulfield Guineas. Taking into account that Wassergeist being such a lightly tried prospect with obvious big scope for more should have got the better of Aberro at Sandown we can safely assume that Wassergeist is every chance of measuring up against Merchant Navy and potentially be better! Sounds like a good proposition when we take into account we can get Wassergeist at 50/1 for the Caulfield Guineas whilst Merchant Navy is the 2nd favorite at 9.00.

The Caulfield Guineas is well known as a stallion making race and when we look at the pedigree of Wassergeist it is not only quickly evident that he has a real stallions pedigree as a son of Fastnet Rock out of the2yo G2 winning Thorn Park mare Te Akau Rose.

We thought we would pull up a replay of Te Akau Rose’s G2 win in the 2009 Duke Of Beresford Stakes in New Zealand which it is worth noting was on heavy going. A good factor to have in our favour when looking at a long range futures bet this far out for a race like the Caulfield Guineas. It’s always good to be on a horse that can potentially handle all types of ground!

Te Akau Rose was tried mostly in stakes company and a closer look at her form profile shows the same.

Wassergeist is 50/1 for the Caulfield Guineas at this early stage and it is worth noting he is engaged at Sandown on Wednesday (6 September) in Race 2 over 1400m. He has been priced up as a 4.20 chance early fixed odds for that race and if he wins as expected using that race as a stepping stone to the Caulfield Guineas then you can be assured he will be shorter than the 50/1 on offer currently for the Caulfield Guineas. Back him to win on Wednesday and also nibble at him each way in the Caulfield Guineas at 50/1.

 

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