Not Surprising If This Wins

There are two lightly raced improvers engaged in Taree Race 4 on Thursday and they look to have the race between them and they are the leaders in the betting market.

When we start with a scenario like that one would think there isnt much advantage to be had but one factor we are yet to mention. They have the top end of the betting market the wrong way around.

Not Surprising is the early 2nd favorite as a 3.70 chance while the other seen major hope is the favorite being Ahalf which is 2.60. It should be basically the other way around.

We have Not Surprising a top rated 3.00 chance. The 4yo I Am Invincible mare can be backed with some degree of confidence to win at the 3.70 on offer.

Taree R4 #7 Not Surprising 3.70
– overly well bred type by I Am Invincible out of a well related Spinning World mare
– broke mdn tag over this track and distance 2 starts ago, form franked since on numerous occassions
– went back to the trials after that to win a Newcastle trial on heavy going by 8.8l
– good hidden merit associated to last start 3rd at Newcastle behind Vincero and Saskia Rose, this clearly easier
– likely to secure a new perfect trip stalking an even tempo from better than midfield
– top rated as a 3.00 chance, can be backed at 3.70, back with a decent degree of confidence

9-08-2017 11-13-31 PM.jpg

Sportsbet seem keen to take Not Surprising on a bit pushing it out from 3.40 to 3.70. It should be firming, not drifting!

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