We took a bit of time today to have an early look at the Caulfield Guineas market.
It’s not surprising to see ROYAL SYMPHONY near the top of the betting market for this time honored race but to be marked up as a 5/1 outright favorite with the next best at 11/1 was a bit absurd to say the least.
There is no doubting ROYAL SYMPHONY has looked visually impressive winning by big spaces at each of its 3 career starts so far but let’s not forget the 2nd and 3rd of those were around one turn on a spacious Flemington track which visually totally suited him down to the ground, Caulfield is a completely different beast.
So often we see horses come through a winter campaign where they have been beating up on their opposition and this one seems to be a bit in that mould. His Listed 1600m win at his last start was by big spaces but it was only an average Listed race for the class, he rates no higher than G2 level on that performance.
Now lets look at ROYAL SYMPHONY from a pedigree perspective. He is by Domesday and despite being a son of Red Ransom he hasn’t really produced anything that screams Caulfield Guineas winner to date in a career where he has had plenty of opportunities. The best horse he has got so far is Pressday who won a weak G1 2yo race in Brisbane and did nothing of note after, add to that he has been an abject failure at stud himself. There is a lot more suitable sires out there with stock that have massive scope as early season 3yo’s to suggest there is more than one candidate out there who has Royal Symphony covered from more than just a pedigree perspective.
On the dam’s side of his pedigree he is even less appealing. He is out of a Palace music mare who was unplaced in 2 career starts and from 11 foals is yet to produce a stakes winner. The 2nd dam finished 3rd in a G3 Dalgety (Flemington link) and the 3rd dam is an unfashionably bred French mare who won 3 from 42 on the track. For heavens sake, even if this horse miraculously wins the Caulfield Guineas with a page like that he will struggle to get a gig at any of the major studs. Think Wonderful World! Think Anacheeva!
The crop of 3yo’s for the 2017/2018 season look an above average bunch and there is just so many superbly bred early season 3yo’s getting around just waiting to go BANG! This horse has been up for a fair while, he has raced right through the winter and now they expect him to peak again for a Caulfield Guineas assault in early October, please! He is G2 at best on fluked and flattered Flemington form and he is expected to find another peak level yet again, he really needs to hit a peak level another rung higher again considering we are looking at a vintage crop of 3yo colts this season as we mentioned just before.
The 5/1 about Royal Symphony to win the Caulfield Guineas is just a totally ridiculous price.
Time to look for value elsewhere in this enticing betting market. Stay tuned for more updates across the Spring for our coverage of the Caulfield Guineas and more including the #BigThree of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.