The last event on a big 10 race program at Swan Hill on Monday is a race worth waiting for and hopefully by that stage of the day we are in a position to really get stuck into Mr Magpie which looks a Banker Bet in the race and very hard to beat. The problem is this…. Will the excellent price still exist?
At the time of writing on Sunday night Mr Magpie is marked up as a 4.00 chance with bookmakers and that is a very backable price. We have it rated clear cut on top in a very weak race as a 2.50 chance. We are of the opinion it will be well found on Monday and it is likely that will be early on in the day, expect it to firm in closer to 3.00 and with that in mind its worth backing now to secure the 4.00 / 1.85 on offer. A good strategy to maximise the odds may be to all up it into a few earlier good propositions in the day.
Swan Hill R10 #1 Mr Magpie 4.00 / 1.85
– likely to secure the run of the race stalking a solid tempo from midfield, big pace advantage
– overly well bred type by Lonhro out of the stakes placed Bluebird mare Oh So Discreet
– has looked a synthetic specialist since shipping sth to Victoria but displayed winning provincial form on turf in NSW
– still lightly raced having only 10th career start, decent scope for more
– gets into an overly weak race for the purse on offer, clearly the one with the most upside and best current form profile
– lumped the same big weight l/start good merit 2nd at Geelong in the AW
– gets into the right race now ticking all the right boxes, goes around as a 4.00 chance, clear top rated as a 2.50 chance
– back to Win at the 4.00 with a good degree of confidence
– even the 1.85 to Place is excellent value, maybe as the final leg as a few different Place multis across the day