Value Bets Australia for Friday 4 August

Goulburn R3

There is no doubting that the 1.90 odds-on fav Saint Denis looks to have a stranglehold on this race but the 2nd rated horse is a massive price of 19.00 / 4.20 as a solid each way prospect and that runner is CELTIC LOVE, it shapes as the best value angle to play the race from, the 4yo Dylan Thomas mare was deceivingly good 1st up 2 starts ago when 3.5l 3rd to potential very smart type Chilcotin, has to be forgiven for flat 2nd up run and must have come through it ok coming into this on a quicker 10 day back up, good scope for more 3rd up and definitely worth playing on an each way basis

Goulburn R3 #5 Celtic Love $10 WIN @ 19.00 / $20 PLACE @ 4.20

Goulburn R4

We get the feeling that odds makers have the top end of the betting market the wrong way around here. DEER MOUNTAIN was very one paced last time when 4th to Special Missile and the run was better than it looked but the run to really go on is 2 starts ago when the 4yo Street Cry mare closed off very strongly when 3rd to Piping Hot at Newcastle over 1250m, the form out of that race is top class and there is definitely more to come from DEER MOUNTAIN being so lightly raced, she is bred to get a strong mile top and bottom and gets in very well weighted, ticks all of the right boxes, goes around as a 4.60 chance which is good overs as we have it rated clear cut on top, nearly strong enough to qualify as a Banker Bet but happy to keep it listed as strong Value bet

Goulburn R4 #5 Deer Mountain $80 WIN @ 4.60

More to follow.

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