Late Mail UK for Saturday 1 July

A big day of racing in the UK and Ireland on Saturday with the G1 Irish Derby headlining the action from the Curragh in Ireland.

We also have stakes racing action from Newmarket (July) along with Newcastle on the AW and Windsor.

Follow all the action here right across Saturday as we cover all the action with another section of Late Mail advice and tips.

Curragh 5.20 G1 Irish Derby – Race Ratings
#8 Waldgeist 3.80
#9 Wings Of Eagles 4.20
#2 Cracksman 5.20
#6 Taj Mahal 7.00
#7 The Anvil 7.00

Curragh 5.20 #8 Waldgeist 3.50 – disappointing to see the overall value lacking at the top end of the betting market in this year’s renewal of the G1 Irish Derby, we have Waldgeist as the top rated contender here slightly infront of Wings Of Eagles but the big problem is they are both 3.50 co-favorites in the early fixed odds markets so there is no major advantage to be had here, our big query here is with this only being a 9 horse field and despite there being obvious Coolmore pacemakers engaged there is every chance that there will not be as much pace through the early to mid stages which for us brings Taj Mahal and The Anvil back into calculations here despite their potential pace making roles in support of Wings Of Eagles, Waldgeist is likely to get 1st run on the Coolmore pace-makers in deep stretch and we feel Wings Of Eagles is going to struggle to run him down, the form coming out of Waldgeist’s 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club does look stronger and we need to remember he is 3rd up with good scope for a fair bit of potential improvement, currently Waldgeist is 3.50, we have it rated 3.80 so if you must bet then keep it in check and dont go too crazy at the minor unders you are taking.

Curragh 4.40 G2 Railway Stakes – Race Ratings
#6 Murillo 3.40
#7 Rostropovich 4.20
#9 Verbal Dexterity 4.80
#2 Commander Grigio 5.50

Curragh 4.40 #7 Rostropovich 17.00 / 3.70 – playing the value angle here nibbling at Rostropovich each way as the 2nd top elect, no doubting Murillo deserves to be favorite here but the 2.90 to 3.00 being bandied around with fixed odds operators is definite unders and the other thing to consider is that both Rostropovich and 3rd elect Verbal Dexterity are fairly untapped and slightly difficult to get a hard line on back to Murillo, for these reasons we are best off playing from the value angle knowing we are getting very good overs about the 2nd top elect Rostropovich here who can be backed at the big odds of 17.00 / 3.70 on an each way basis, the Coolmore owned son of Frankel is having his 3rd career start after improving markedly last time out to break his maiden at Gowran over 7f, the big margin 3rd to 4th that day adds good depth to the form out of the race and he did win rather comfortably with a bit in hand despite the 0.5l winning margin, also of considerable note is that Aidan O’Brien throws Rostropovich into this G2 contest on a quick 6 day back up so he has obviously thrived since breaking his maiden last Sunday.

Newmarket (July) 3.15 G3 Criterion Stakes – Race Ratings
#2 Home Of The Brave 2.40
#8 Winning Ways 4.70
#7 Thikriyaat 6.00
#6 Richard Pankhurst 10.00

Newmarket (July) 3.15 #2 Home Of The Brave 3.30 & #8 Winning Ways 15.00 / 3.30 – very good confidence betting race to get stuck into here, Home Of The Brave is the clear cut top elect and is very good value as a 3.30 chance, we have it rated on top as a 2.40 chance, Winning Ways can also be backed as the 2nd top rated contender at the very good odds of 15.00 / 3.30 on an each way basis, back it in support of the top elect for a result across the race. Home Of The Brave returned for the 2017 season with an impressive win in at Listed level over 7f at Leicester defeating Tasleet by 1.7l with a further 5l margin back to 3rd, Tasleet franked that form to a major degree winning at G2 level next time out by 2.5l before finishing 2nd to The Tin Man beaten a neck in the G1 Diamond Jubilee, hard to see Home Of The Brave getting rolled here coming in here with those formlines in its profile, he’s 2nd up fitter now subject to scope for a bit more, if there is one horse that may test Home Of The Brave it is the 15.00 chance Winning Ways, the 3yo Lope De Vega colt was very impressive winning at Ascot over 7f 2 starts ago by a widening 3.7l, prepared to overlook his last start midfield effort at Royal Ascot in a very strong renewal of the G3 Jersey Stakes, lightly raced with decent scope for more, warrants each way nibbling in support of Home Of The Brave.

Newmarket (July) 2.05 Listed Fred Archer Stakes – Race Ratings
#3 Midterm 2.60
#6 Red Verdon 4.50
#2 Lord Yeats 7.20
#5 Platitude 7.50
#1 Second Step 10.00

Newmarket (July) 2.05 #3 Midterm 3.50 – very hard to go past the chances of the regally bred Midterm here, by Galileo out of the top class Oasis Dream mare Midday who herself won 9 from 23 including 6 times at G1 level, comes into this having its 3rd start for the 2017 season and drops in class on the back of finishing 4l 3rd to Hawkbill last time out at G3 level, likely for a new peak for this preparation 3rd up here, go on Prix Niel 2nd at Chantilly over 12f last season when splitting Makahiki (Deep Impact) and Doha Dream (Shamardal) with a big gap back to 4th, those 2 horses have since franked the form out of that G2 contest to a major degree, if Midterm runs anywhere near that level here she is super hard to beat, the class runner, we have the 3yo Galileo colt rated a 2.60 clear cut top elect, can be backed as a 3.50 chance fixed odds, qualifies as a NAP, good overs, back to win with good confidence.

Curragh 2.35 #2 Herald The Dawn 7.50 / 3.00 – excellent each way value on offer here about the classy Herald The Dawn in a race where there is only 2 Place dividends on offer, comes into this race having its 1st start for the 2017 season after only being seen twice as a 3yo during the 2016 season including 8th in the 2000 Guineas when 1st up behind Galileo Gold, has obviously had its fair share of issues but was a very high class 2yo who won at G2 level and finished 2nd to Air Force Blue in the G1 National Stakes on this track, represents the astute Jim Bolder yard and this seems a perfect spot to resume with bigger targets on its radar as the season moves along, we have it rated on top here as a 3.50 chance so big overs being bet as a 7.50 / 3.00 top rated each way chance, great Place value at 3.00 despite only paying 2 Place dividends this race, qualifies as a Place NAP.

Newmarket 2.40 #6 Elizabeth Bennet 4.50 – highly impressive breaking its maiden tag at 2nd time of asking last start by a widening 5l margin over 6f at Lingfield on the AW, minor concern the Acclamation filly may have been slightly fluked and flattered after va perfect trip that day stalking the leaders but the bottom line she put them away in a twinkling and could have won by even further, she has the pedigree to suggest she can be an above average sprinting 2yo filly by Acclamation out of a Titus Livius mare, overall this doesn’t look the hardest 2yo Listed race to win, on a repeat will prove hard to hold out, goes around as a 4.50 chance which is minor overs as we have it rated on top as a 4.00 chance.

Curragh 3.10 #7 Alexios Komnenos 4.50 (major elect) & #8 Mjjack 12.00 / 3.20 & #4 Misty Birnam 20.00 / 4.50 – very good value betting race to get involved with here, Alexios Komnenos is the clear top rated contender here, comes into this having its 3rd career start and first start of the 2017 season, broke maiden on debut by 3l over 7f on this track then beaten a neck by Churchill at G3 level at Leopardstown over 7f with a good margin to 3rd, if it returns anywhere near that level here it will prove super hard to hold out as the top elect being offered up as a 4.50 chance, we have it top rated as a 3.20 elect, also worth nibbling at Mjjack who is looking to make it a 3 timer after winning 2 on end at Doncaster & Haydock on rain effected going, Mjjack is 12.00 / 3.20 on an each way basis, another at big odds also worth nibbling as as equal 2nd elect is Misty Birnham who was high class placing as G2 & G1 level last season in South Africa as a 2yo before shipping to Ireland, 2nd up now fitter and worth overlooking 1st up effort when last in a Listed race at Cork, Misty Birnham can be backed on an each way basis at 20.00 / 4.50.

Chester 2.20 #4 Queen In Waiting 2.90 – well bred 3yo filly with a strong speed pedigree by Exceed And Excel out of the Cozzene mare Princess Taise, comes into this race having its 9th career start on the back of making 3 career wins last time out getting the better of Jumira Bridge over 5f at Newmarket when making all to hold on by a neck, put a good margin to 3rd that day and battled on strongly when challenged, scope for plenty more still being so lightly raced and looks a stakes quality sprinting filly on the make to some degree which is hard to say about the others she takes on here, we have her rated clear on top as a 2.60 chance, offered up as a 2.90 chance, minor overs about a NAP quality win bet, back with a good degree of confidence.

York 2.30 #4 Fourth Way 10.00 / 2.80 – lightly raced Iffraaj 4yo filly who comes into this race on the back of finishing last of 4 runners at Doncaster only beaten 3.2l on seasonal return last time out, looked well above the level required to win here last season when 1.5l 3rd at Listed level at Newbury behind Light Music, 2nd up for new season now with good scope for more and if it can find anywhere near that level here should prove hard to run down in deep stretch as a solid each way chance at 10.00 / 2.80.

 

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