With our coverage of Royal Ascot for 2017 now nearly over we now turn our attention back Australian racing on Saturday where we look to put our expert eye over the form around the country. Hopefully we can continue the consistent strong results we have been producing lately. Surely there has to be a few big priced winners out there waiting with our name on them.
Stay tuned across Saturday as we try those elusive big priced winners!
We also have our Blackbook Stable Runners for Saturday listed for punters to follow.
Tamworth R1 #11 Dee You See Kay 7.00 / 2.30 – overly strong race for the purse on offer here in this 2yo maiden that kicks off the card at Tamworth, Dee You See Kay has a good speed pedigree by Pluck out of an Excites mare, has shown very good speed both career starts including on debut in the Inglis Challenge $105K at Scone, trial 2nd to Dreamy Belle prior to debut also suggests well above the level required to win here, merit in form well hidden, benefits from a 4kg claim also for Cejay Graham, may prove very hard to run down in deep stretch, goes around as a 7.00 / 2.30 chance, we have it top rated as 4.20 chance.
Tamworth R2 #4 Yzerman 1.70 – we’re not into backing too many horses at odds on prices and there has to be very good reason to be doing so and that is the exact scenario we get here, this one is very well bred by Uncle Mo out of a Stravinsky mare and he comes into this race 1st up from a spell on the back of only 1 run at debut preparation when 4.8l 5th of 6 at Kembla Grange, prefer to go on trial win prior over Newburgh and Momentum To Win at Rosehill, gives form lines back to some high class stakes horses including being only 3l off the likes of Menari, should just be a matter of by how far in what looks a weak maiden for the tag. Being bet as a 1.70 chance, we have it rated as a 1.50 chance.
Tamworth R3 #5 Palace Street 14.00 / 3.20 – playing this race from the value angle, there is no doubting the odds on favorite I am You Are does look the one to beat on its Victorian provincial form and recent trial win but 1.80 is way too short for us and we think if the Denman 3yo gelding Palace Street can brings it’s A-game to the track here today then it is a chance of rolling the odds on pop, as a minimum we expect it to run into a top 3 placing at the very good place odds on offer of 3.20, go on Gunnedah trial win back in December 2016, also comes through 2 very strong $20K & $40K maidens and drops very sharply in class here after showing enough early speed both starts to be on the front end under solid clips, should get a much easier trip on the front end here, if the odd-on fav has any chinks in its armor Palace Street can expose them at the big odds odds of 14.00 / 3.20 as an each way prospect worth nibbling at, obviously better confidence about the Place portion of the bet.
Kembla Grange R2 #7 Can Party 6.00 / 2.70 – deceivingly well bred type and a good 2yo pedigree especially coming into the later part of the season, by Excelebration out of a Canny Lad mare who herself was smart in her short career 15 starts, 3 wins, 10 placings, 2nd up from a spell here and worth totally overlooking 1st up effort last time out, this is much easier, go on debut run 1st up last preparation close up 1l 4th to Delago Thunder in a very strong 2yo maiden at Kembla Grange, clearly a much stronger race than it faces here, form references stack up out of the race strongly, likely to have come on since then being by Excelebration who’s stock are showing a tendency to train on as late season 2yo’s. Goes around as a 6.00 / 2.70 (2 place divs) solid each way chance, we have it top rated as a 3.50 chance, back with a decent amount of confidence for a winning result across the race.
Morphettville R1 #14 Think Out Loud 7.00 / 2.40 & #6 Gronky 18.00 / 4.80 – enough depth in this betting market to back both Think Out Loud & Gronky at the good odds for a result across the race, this is a wide open affair with a lot of seen chances on paper but these 2 have good hidden merit in their form profiles and are bred to suggest they are likely to be up to winning a Saturday city maiden, Think Out Loud is 1st up off a good trial 2nd, sure to have come on since spelling being by So You Think, draws perfectly and thrown in at the weights after the claim, Gronky was very good 2nd in a trial prior to the start of last prep putting big margins back through the field then did exactly the same thing 1st up when 2nd to Lucky Lucky Eight, that form stands up into a race like this, back both on an each way basis for a result across the race.
Kembla Grange R3 #10 Speedway 3.80 & #9 Regimen 6.00 – shapes as a big confidence race in two here between the 2 runners from the Beadman / Godolphin yard in the form of Speedway and Regimen, together the occupy 43% of the betting market which equates to combined odds of 2.30 approximately, we have them rated a combined 1.80 chance of winning here, that suggests good overs about a high confidence win betting play, Speedway is superbly bred by Street Cry out of the Redoute’s Choice mare Glissade, close up 3rd’s in city trials 2 of 3 most recent trials suggests well up to this, Saturday city class on the make, it rates just infront of Sepoy 2yo Regimen who is placed in all 4 of its most recent trials including 2 good 2nd’s recently to Brook Magic & Play respectively, back along with Speedway for an equal result across the race. (Regimen is a late scratching)
Morphettville R6 #6 Colonel Klink 6.00 / 2.00 – got the distinct impression this one may well be an above average staying prospect on the make the way it rounded them up last time out and quickly put them away over 1600m when coming off a 4 week freshen at Balaklava last time, has been given another decent 17 day break into this and has big scope for more stretching out to 1800m even fitter now and dont forget still lightly raced with natural scope, also very well bred by Savabeel out of the Fusaichi Pegasus mare Affairoftheheart who herself was high class over 1600m-2000m in New Zealand, ticks all the right boxes, we have it clear cut top rated as a 2.90 chance, excellent value as a clear value top elect each way at 6.00 / 2.00.
Broome R3 #3 Woven 2.90 – overly well bred type by Hard Spun out of a Green Line Express mare, prepared to forgive last start 3rd over 1100m behind Balrov and Lovejoy, on a quick 7 day back up here suggesting it still has more to give and has come through that run exceptionally well, prefer to go on wide margin 3.5l win the start prior when making all over 1100m on this track, strong through the line that day and clearly superior, on a repeat has a bit on this lot, only seen danger is the Darwin shipper Howdee but we are fairly certain Woven has it’s measure, goes around as a 2.90 chance here, we have it rated clear on top as a 2.50 chance, decent overs about a strong confidence win betting proposition.
Kembla Grange R8 #10 Flying Dee Jay 5.50 / 2.10 & #3 Come On Vogue 8.50 / 2.80 – there are only 3 seen winning chances in this race and they rate well clear in front of the rest of them and from those 3 runners we can back the top 2 rated contenders Flying Dee Jay and Come On Vogue both to win for a result across the race with good confidence, these 2 occupy 30% of the betting market making them a combined 3.30 chance, we have them rated a combined 1.80 chance, very good overs about a high confidence win betting combination. Flying Dee Jay has impeccable trial form and rates a bit infront of Come On Vogue who is a well bred Waller charge with the right trial form when 2nd to Solar Cry now looking for this trip, for Place punters the 2.10 about Flying Dee Jay to run a drum is great value vs confidence.