Royal Ascot Day 4 Analysis

We come into Day 4 of our coverage of Royal Ascot on somewhat of a win streak and we think it is all set to continue on Day 4 with another blockbuster card of racing action including the Group 1 double of the Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes.

We have given you the winner in the opening race of Royal Ascot every day so far starting off with Ribchester on Tuesday followed by Le Brivido on Wednesday and then to top it all off we gave out Sioux Nation on Thursday in the Norfolk Stakes.

Races covered on Friday

  • Albany Stakes G3
  • King Edward VII Stakes G2
  • Commonwealth Cup G1
  • Coronation Stakes G1
  • Queen’s Vase G2
  • Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes C2

Albany Stakes Preview – interesting betting race with Alpha Centurai the 3.80 early market leader here so we need to play this race from a value perspective knowing the favorite is big unders, we have Alpha Centurai top rated as a 5.00 chance in a wide open affair. From a confidence perspective better quality betting races show up later on the card when considering the win betting angle. We will nibble at the other 4 seen winning chances rated 2nd to 5th which are Princess Peggy 26.00, Madeline 23.00 (those 2 for the best result on the race), and also Black Sails 11.00 and Snowflakes 15.00, its a wide open affair hopefully one of those 4 finds the head decision requited to roll the favorite. The Place betting angle is the best way to play this race and with a bit of confidence. Princess Peggy the close 2nd top rated is 6.00 to run top 3 whilst Madeline is 5.50 to run top 3 as the close rated 3rd top elect. Back both with equal confidence as the best betting option to run into a top 3 Place.

Ascot 2.30 Albany Stakes 6f G3 2yof
#2 Alpha Centurai 5.00
#15 Pricess Peggy 6.20
#11 Madeline 6.50
#4 Black Sails 7.50
#16 Snowflakes 8.00
#9 Fairyland 11.00
#21 Whitefountainfairy 12.50

King Edward VII Stakes Preview – we have this race down to a race of 2 major seen chances and we can bet into this race knowing it is one of the better confidence betting races of the Royal Ascot carnival so far. We have Khalidi rating just infront of Sir John Lavery with a clear margin back to 3rd. The top 2 look G1 quality staying prospects on the make. That is required to win such a strong renewal of the King Edward VII Stakes. Khalidi goes around as a 21.00 / 4.50 chance whilst Sir John Lavery is also great value as the other top seen winning chance paying 7.50 / 2.50. THe Win odds seem too good to be true for a race we are calling a race in two but we are known for calling bigger winning results with similar confidence. This may just end up the best value betting race of the whole Royal Ascot carnival. From a Place betting perspective this race is a dream scenario. A top rated contender in Khalidi we have rated a 4.00 win chance and they are betting 4.50 to Place. Anytime we get better for the Place compared to our rated Win odds is a dream scenario. Sir John Lavery is also big value considering it is a clear 2nd elect. These 2 are every chance of running top 3 giving us a real nice windfall.

Ascot 3.05 King Edward VII Stakes 12f G2 2yo c&g
#8 Khalidi 4.00
#12 Sir John Lavery 4.50
#4 Crystal Ocean 8.00
#2 Best Solution 9.00
#9 Permian 10.00
#7 Intern 15.00
#11 Salouen 16.00

Ascot 3.05 #8 Khalidi 21.00 / 4.50 – well bred to get a trip by High Chaparral out of a Cape Cross mare who herself won her 1st 3 career starts on end culminating in taking out the Listed Premio Seregno in Italy at San Siro, this one comes into this race on the back of finishing down the track behind Wings Of Eagles last time out at Epsom in the G1 Derby, go on soft 5l margin win the start prior at Goodwood over 11f, that was only its 8th career start, has an impeccable record for a lightly tried staying prospect now winning 4 of 9, scope for plenty more, will run a huge race as the 4.00 rated top elect on offer each way at 21.00 / 4.50, back along with other seen outright top winning chance Sir John Lavery for a result across the race.

Ascot 3.05 #12 Sir John Lavery 7.50 / 2.50 – superbly bred type by Galileo out of the Fusaichi Pegasus mare Race For The Stars who herself finished 2l 4th in the G1 Coronation Stakes run on this day of the Royal Ascot carnival in 2006, comes into this race having only its 4th career start and big scope for more, did nothing 1st up from a spell last time out at Lingfield taking on Listed company but connections press on here into a tougher affair knowing its 7l maiden win end of last season suggested it is a G1 colt on the make over staying trips, yard is in top form vs a vintage Godolphin representation this year so they are actually flying at the moment, excellent value here as the other seen major winning hope at 7.50 & 2.50.

Commonwealth Cup Preview – we have this race down to 4 seen clear winning chances, they have the race between them this quartet. The market has it wrong making Caravaggio such a short priced elect in early betting offered up as a 2.00 favorite, we have it 3rd top rated. There is a little bit of advantage to be had here by backing the top 2 rated contenders to roll the even money favorite. Harry Angel is the market 2nd elect here as a 3.80 chance whilst Bound For Nowhere is a good price of 11.00 / 2.40. Back both of them to win having slightly more on the shorter priced Harry Angel to even out the winning result across the top 2 rated contenders in the race. From a Place betting perspective the obvious one to be getting excited about is Bound For Nowhere which is rated a 4.50 2nd elect here and is being bet at 2.40 for the drum, hard to see it missing a top 3 placing thinking there is only 4 seen clear winning chances in the race, on that basis we can make Bound For Nowhere a Place NAP at the good odds of 2.40.

Ascot 3.40 Commonwealth Cup 6f G1 3yo
#4 Harry Angel 4.00
#2 Bound For Nowhere 4.50
#3 Caravaggio 5.50
#1 Blue Point 6.00

Coronation Stakes Preview – no doubting that Winter is absolute top class and clearly the one to beat here in the Coronation Stakes and she is realistically probably deserves the long odds on quote or around that mark she is being bet at here but for us we know there are plenty of other less exposed and better value opportunities around, she should win but we don’t back horses to win at 1.50.

Queen’s Vase Preview – another good quality betting race infront of us here, fairly keen on Wisconsin as the clear cut top elect which is on offer at 9.00 & 3.00 as the clear cut top elect, also good overs is the 2nd and 3rd elects, 2nd elect Night Of Glory which we have rated as a 6.00 chance can be backed at 21.00 & 5.00 then we have the 3rd elect Count Octave also minor overs offered up as a 10.00 win chance, rated slightly shorter as a 6.80 chance. Back Wisconsin to win as the top elect and also back 2nd and 3rd elects to win for a good result across the race. The Place betting option is definitely the best way to play this race from a confidence perspective, Wisconsin is a Place NAP as the good odds of 3.00, also worth backing 2nd elect Night Of Glory in support of Wisconin on offer at 5.00 to Place, rated 6.00 to win, that always suggests great value as we mentioned with Khalidi earlier.

Ascot 5.00 Queen’s Vase 14f G2 3yo
#13 Wisconsin 3.80
#9 Night Of Glory 6.00
#3 Count Octave 6.80
#11 Stradivarius 7.50
#7 Haripour 11.00
#6 Fierce Impact 13.00

Ascot 5.00 #13 Wisconsin 9.00 / 3.00 – superbly bred lightly raced improving staying prospect by Deep Impact out of the very high class 4 time G1 winning Danehill mare Peeping Fawn who has also got the high class ans highly regarded wide margin debut winning 2yo September (also by Deep Impact), comes into this race having its 3rd career start on the back of getting the better of Steel Prince in a ding ding duel at Tipperary last time out over 12.5f, those 2 put a big 7l margin back to 3rd that day and looked high class stayers in the making doing so, breeding suggests plenty more to come and we’ve got a feeling this one might be very high class in the making, interesting to see what quote it is for win the Arc if it gets the cash here which it is a huge chance of doing as the clear top elect.

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Preview – a large field of 19 runners line up here for what shapes as very deep renewal of the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes for 2017. Form references are coming from everywhere making this a very tough race to decipher. Sure there is heaps of value on offer here but its hard to overly confident about anything so we will opt to call this a NON-BETTING race.

 

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