Royal Ascot Day 3 Analysis

So far the first two days of the Royal Ascot meeting for 2017 have proven to be strong punting days. Our NAP’s on both days have been successful. Ribchester annexed the Queen Anne Stakes on Tuesday as a 2.10 chance for our first winning NAP. Then on Wednesday Highland Reel stayed on strong in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes after being bet around the 3.20 mark to make it 2 wins from 2 for our NAP’s so far at Royal Ascot.

There have also been plenty of other highlights across the first two days lncluding Rajasinghe taking out the Coventry Stakes as a 15.00 chance, but now it is time to turn out attention to Thursday for Day 3 of Royal Ascot.

Races covered on Thursday

  • 2.30 Norfolk Stakes G2
  • 3.05 Hampton Court Stakes G3
  • 3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes G2
  • 4.20 Gold Cup G1
  • 5.00 Britannia Stakes C2
  • 5.35 King George V Stakes C2

Norfolk Stakes Preview – a great betting race to kick off the card on Day 3 of Royal Ascot. We get an 18 horse field here which suggests plenty of value is there to be had and that is the exact scenario we find here. We can back 3 runners here for a strong confidence result we have this race nailed. We’ve got the feeling that the Coolmore juggernaut has a very progressive smart one here in the form of Sioux Nation, the Scat Daddy colt goes around as a 13.00 / 3.75 clear cut top elect, that is great value and it allows us to also back the only other 2 seen winning chances for a result across the race. Wesley Ward brings McErin to the show and the Havana Gold colt Havana Grey is the other seen winning chance, they are 6.50 & 9.00 respectively, back them in support of top elect Sioux Nation. They occupy 35% of the betting market. That means we are getting odds of 2.85 combined about what we have a rated combined 1.80 chance of landing the winning result. From a Place betting perspective we will concentrate our efforts on outright top elect Sioux Nation, we can get 3.75 about it to ‘run a drum’, as a clear cut top elect that is great value for top 3 honors, lets call it a Place NAP at those luxury odds!

Ascot 2.30 #15 Sioux Nation 13.00 / 3.80 – hot 2yo speed pedigree by Scat Daddy out of the undefeated Oasis Dream mare Dream The Blues who herself was an impressive debut winner at Redcar as a late season 3yo and then never to be seen again on the track, put the writing on the wall when 2nd to Brother Bear over 6.5f when trying to make all on a hot front end speed, battled on strong that day, good hidden merit, best of the on pacers, franked that form winning next time out by a space with a fair bit in hand at Cork dropping back to 6f, took a sit that day and added another chink to its armor, big bonus here at Royal Ascot up the straight track with a lot of hectic early speed engaged, will look the winner somewhere in deep stretch, should prove hard to get over the top of in this 5f speed test.

Hampton Court Stakes Preview – the betting market has it basically correct here, there is 4 realistic winning chances that all rate very close to each other. The 4 runners capable of taking out this Group 3 staying contest are in top 4 order. #6 Irishcorrespondent, #11 Orderofthegarter, #16 Tamleek and #3 Benbatti, if we had to lean one way we would back the top 2 being Irishcorrespondent at 7.50 & Orderofthegarter at 6.50 both to win for a result across the race but for us this is a NON-BETTING race, plenty of better opportunities will exist across the rest of the carnival.

Ribblesdale Stakes Preview – We get the first NAP for Day 3 of Royal Ascot here and our 3rd NAP of the carnival so far in the form of Alluringly. Another Coolmore horse bred in the purple and goes around as a 5/2 or 3.50 chance, clear cut top elect. Our 3rd NAP of the carnival and should continue the 100% winning run for our NAPs.

Ascot 3.40 #1 Alluringly 3.50 – superbly bred 3yo filly by Fastnet Rock out of the Giant’s Causeway mare All For Glory who herself is a daughter of the blue hen Sadler’s Wells mare All Too Beautiful (3/4 sister to Galileo and 1/2 sister to Sea The Stars), routed when 3rd beaten 11 lengths by Enable last time out in the G1 Investec Oaks, prefer to go on close up 2nd to that same horse 2 starts ago, that was on the back of a hack up 4.7l maiden win at Tipperary 3 starts ago over 9.5f, strong thru the line that day suggesting good scope for more as a lightly raced staying filly, looks the clear cut top elect and a G1 winning filly on the make, has the class edge and only luck or freakish improvement from one of its foes rolls it!, goes around as a 3.50 chance fixed odds, we have it rated clear cut on top at 2.80, qualifies as an early NAP on Day 3 looking to continue our perfect 100% record with our NAPs at Royal Ascot in 2017.

Gold Cup Preview – this is another of the feature races where for us we feel the warranted favorite is definite unders. We have big queries over the depth coming out of the form around Order Of St George and he looks a very short priced elect when thinking he is a favorite by pure default here because this race lacks depth as a true G1 contest, too many queries in this race fo us. NON-BETTING affair!

Britannia Stakes Preview – a huge field of 29 runners are engaged here after scratchings and as would be expected with such a large field there is plenty of value to be had. We have found 3 runners in this race who all have the right kind of profiles to suggest they can be super competitive in what shapes as a race where luck will play a significant role most likely. With that in mind we need to bet conservatively but also knowing we are getting good value about the 3 runners we like here in the Win betting market. Lightening Fast is 26.00 & 5.50 on an each way basis and rates on top here slightly infront of Colibri which can be backed at 15.00 & 4.00 followed close up by 3rd elect Leader’s Legacy which is 17.00 & 4.40. All 3 of these are good double figure odds in the Win market so back all 3 of them to equal effect for a result across the race. From a Place betting perspective we bet into a market offering 4 place dividends here. We make Lightening Fast at 5.50 our major Place bet but also back 2nd elect Colibri also to run into the top 4 place getters at the good odds of 4.00.

King George V Stakes Preview – the 2017 renewal of the King George V Stakes is a very deep renewal and with that in mind it shapes as a race that is hard to get enthused about from a betting perspective with so many varying formlines coming into the race. Add to that the fact we are dealing with mid-season staying 3yo’s who are subject to any amount of scope for improvement that is hard to measure. A surefire recipe to equal a difficult betting race to decipher. A NON-BETTING race for us.

 

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