Royal Ascot Day 1 Analysis

One of the highlights of the worldwide racing calendar has rolled around once again and that means it is time to get set for 5 days of the best quality you are likely to see all year.

We will be providing analysis for all 5 days of the carnival starting off with Day 1 on Tuesday. Stay tuned as we bring you all of the critical information you will need to walk away winning after the 5 days.

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20-06-2017 4-49-57 PM

Ribchester has got out to 1.98 on Betfair in the Queen Anne Stakes

Queen Anne Stakes Preview – earlier in the week Ribchester was being offered as a 1.66 chance for this race with bookmakers and at that stage we were concerned about taking such a short price, it is out to 1.98 now on Betfair which is excellent value, we were happy to be taking 1.80 but really wanted closer to 2.00 so we get our wish, load up on the first NAP of the carnival.

Ascot 2.30 #13 Ribchester 1.98 – there is no doubting that Ribchester looks a potential high class miler the way he put them away in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury by a strong 3.7l margin after making all on the front end, on that run we have him clear on top, you really want odds of 1.80 before you go having anything that looks like your house on Ribchester, even at 1.80 you would be mad to bet ‘your house”, maybe at 2.00, simply put if the Iffraaj 4yo colt shows up anywhere near his best he should be winning.

Coventry Stakes Preview – this is a very good quality betting race, we can back 3 horses to Win with Arawak the clear cut major elect supported by Rajasinghe and 50/1 U S Navy Flag, from a Place betting perspective we are very confident about Arawak running into a Place so the 3.00 on offer for the Place is the best confidence vs value angle in this race for us, it really qualifies as a Place NAP, it is also worth having a bit of a go at U S Navy Flag for the drum at the big odds of 9.00.

Ascot 3.05 Coventry Stakes G2 2yo 6f
#2 Arawak 3.80
#14 Rajasinghe 6.50
#17 U S Navy Flag 7.50
#11 Murillo 13.00
#6 De Bruyne Horse 16.00

Ascot 3.05 #2 Arawak 9.00 / 3.00 – with Declerationofpeace a non runner here it really does look a race where the Wesley Ward 2yo Uncle Mo colt can take full advantage, he ships over here from the USA after winning on debut at Belmont over 5f on a muddy dirt surface by 7l, he put 2 decently bred types away very quickly that day looking stakes class as a minimum that day and we must not forget the trainer knows exactly what kind of horse it takes to win at Royal Ascot, especially with his sprinting 2yo’s, top class USA speed pedigree by Uncle Mo out of a Spanish Steps mare, if he handles the good to firm turf here (very likely) then he will prove very hard to hold out in deep stretch, goes around as an 9.00 / 3.00 chance which is excellent value, we have it rated as a clear cut top elect at 3.80.

Ascot 3.05 #14 Rajasinghe 12.00 / 3.60 – has a real Australian flavour to it the pedigree of this one being by Choisir out of a Soviet Star mare (dam sire spent numerous seasons serving to SH time), overall a very good early 2yo speed pedigree, showed plenty of ability on debut sitting on pace before putting them to the sword 2 furlong out to run away and win by 4l at Newcastle on the AW, form out of that race franked to a major degree with 2nd and 4th home winning next start and 5th home winning the start prior, has plenty of ability and may well measure up here, sire loved this track, rated as 2nd elect as a 6.50 chance so represents good overs being offered up at 12.00 / 3.50, at that sort of price can back in support of the top elect as one of only 3 seen winning chances.

Ascot 3.05 #17 U S Navy Flag 51.00 / 9.00 – one of two runners engaged here for the O’Brien yard but their 2nd electi n the betting being offered up at 51.00 / 9.00 but we get the feeling it might have the measure of its more fancied stable mate Murillo who we have in for 4th in this race, U S Navy Flag is superbly bred by War Front out of the high class Galileo mare Misty For Me who herself was a 4 time G1 winner including twice as a 2yo, was clearly held by Brother Bear last start but that was on yielding to soft ground, prefer to go on 2nd career start close up 3rd to Black Sails and Another Batt, they put a huge margin to 4th that day and 2nd home since came out and won by 5l at Ripon, 4th home who was 7l off the first 3 came out and finished 7l 3rd to September next time out, so this one ticks a few boxes for an O’Brien 2nd string going around at 50/1 after they decided not to accept with Declerationofpeace (also by War Front), has big scope for more, will be primed for this, back each way in support of Arawak and Rajasinghe, the serious blow out chance.

King’s Stand Stakes Preview – A fairly strong renewal of the King’s Stand Stakes for 2017. Got this race down to 2 major seen chances and we are very confident one of them will prevail here and from a betting perspective their is definitely enough value to back both of them for a result across the race. Signs Of Blessing can be backed at 7.00 whilst Lady Aurelia is 4.50. Together they occupy 36% of the betting market. Bet the same amount on each. We have them occupying 53% of the betting market or a true 1.88 chance so to get 2.75 combined is great value. Bet the WIN market with strong confidence. From a Place betting perspective Signs Of Blessing is the way to play the race on offer at 2.60. Thats awesome value considering we have it rated a 3.00 chance in the win market! Signs Of Blessing is a Place NAP.

20-06-2017 7-48-30 PM

The straight mile at Royal Ascot

Ascot 3.40 King’s Stand Stakes G1 5f 3yo+
#12 Signs Of Blessing 3.00
#18 Lady Aurelia 5.00
#16 Marsha 9.50
#9 Muthmir 11.50
#14 Washington DC 13.00
#5 Goldream 16.50
#11 Profitable 16.50

Ascot 3.40 #12 Signs Of Blessing 7.00 / 2.60 – very well bred type by Invincible Spirit out of a Seeking The Gold mare and comes into this race as a winner 9 from 22 and really at the peak of its game as a mid-season 5yo, highly impressive winning the G3 Prix de Saint-Georges at Deauville 1st up from a spell last time out on very soft ground when making all, form references out of that race read very strong suggesting well up to G1 5f level currently, given a 5 week break since that win to get over the potentially tough outing on testing ground 1st up, may even come on a bit for that win, clear cut top elect and represents very good value here at 7.00 / 2.60 as a very solid each way hope, also back 2nd elect Lady Aurelia for a result across the race.

Ascot 3.40 #18 Lady Aurelia 4.50 – came here and won the Queen Mary at this carnival this time last year when having only its 2nd career start, made an absolute mess of them that day winning by a widening 7l after making all, clearly superior, proved that no fluke winning the G1 Prix Morny at Deauville next time out showing it can get 6f, tuned up for this with a soft 2.5l Listed win at Keeneland, Wesley Ward knows what he is doing and this horse loves Ascot and has now franked that top Ascot form winning at G1 level in France, ticks all the right boxes as the only danger to Signs Of Blessing, goes around as a 4.50 chance which is around the right price or just under its true mark but still worth backing when we are getting overs for Signs Of Blessing.

St James’s Palace Stakes Preview – look there is no doubting Churchill is the best horse in this race and we are happy to go as far and say he might even be the 2nd best son of Galileo to ever grace the track behind Frankel, the way he put Thunder Snow away in the Irish 2000 Guineas was special and if you took notice of what those 2 did to those others floundering back in 3rd and worse it becomes quickly obvious Churchill improved again from his 2000 Guineas win to his Irish 2000 Guineas win. He is trading at 1.63 on Betfair which is probably about the right price and there is no doubting he should win with a bit in hand but there is the progressive Barney Roy also here and Thunder Snow gets a 1st time pacifier, those 2 factors are enough to turn us away from wanting to back Churchill here, he looks the winner but he is definitely NOT a Nap purely because he is too short as a betting prospect, he should be more like 1.80

20-06-2017 9-04-30 PM

CHURCHILL by Galileo out of Meow (Storm Cat) has a race record nearly as good as Frankel outside his debut 3rd, he has the makings of being the 2nd best son of Galileo ever to grace the track.

Ascot Stakes Preview – A very strong renewal of the Ascot Stakes this year with no less than 5 serious winning chances and for the most part of it the top end of the market is fairly right here outside a few minor factors so with that in mind we are going to play safely here from a value angle…..more to follow. We will back a few of them to win here. Beyond Conceit is minor overs at 6.50, back as one of two major chances, also back Endless Acres at 13.00 as the other main hope (we are going to risk Who Dares Wins as it is 3rd best and no value, it s minor unders), it is also worth nibbling at the 4th rated and 5th rated contenders Cartwright and Moorside in the win market aswell which are 26.00 and 34.00 respectively. There is 4 Place dividends on offer in this race so we are also going to play the Place betting market from a value angle with a bit of good confidence to be had though. Endless Acres is the major Place bet at the good odds of 3.00 on offer, it is one of the close to equal top 3 rated chances so it makes sense as the best value of those 3, we can also back the 4th and 5th rated runners to Place being Cartwright and Moorside which are 4.50 & 5.50 respectively in support of Endless Acres.

Ascot 5.00 Ascot Stakes C2 2m4f 4yo+
#18 Beyond Conceit 5.60
#11 Endless Acres 6.00
#14 Who Dares Wins 6.50
#16 Cartwright 7.50
#15 Moorside 11.00
#6 Cleonte 18.00
#1 Iniciar 31.00

Ascot 5.00 #18 Beyond Conceit 6.50 – very well bred lightly tried type for an 8yo by Galileo out of the Danehill mare Baraka, was off the scene for 3 & 1/2 years since showing very good Handicap form during the middle of 2013, has had 4 runs since returning over the hurdles culminating in a 2nd in the G1 Sefton Novice’s Hurdle at Aintree back in April, put away with this in mind and maybe a tilt at something like the Melbourne Cup, only query with this one is the bunched finish in the last start G1 Hurdle 2nd, goes around as a 6.50 chance fixed odds, we have it rated on top at 5.60.

Ascot 5.00 #11 Endless Acres 13.00 / 3.00 – rates 2nd best here hot on the heels of Beyond Conceit, deceivingly well bred type with a good staying pedigree by the under-rated sire Champs Elysees (Danehill) out of the Alzao mare Eternity Ring, this the best of her 8 runners of racing age, comes into this race having only its 8th career start suggesting good scope for more as a lightly tried staying prospect, very good winning by 4l having first start of 2017 three starts ago at Kempton, Newcastle 2nd to Flymetothestars last start full of merit, put a 7l margin back to 3rd in a race that is working out very strong as a form race, the value contender of the top 3 rated in this race being offered up at 13.00 / 3.00, good overs and back it as one of the main chances.

Windsor Castle Stakes Preview – There is form coming from everywhere for this race including a horse from across the Atlantic by Australian champion Lonhro for the Wesley Ward gravy train but for us this race is simply too hard to find a winning angle on, we are saying out of this race!

 

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