Late Mail is back again for Sunday racing in Australia. Hopefully another strong session awaits us after landing yet another big priced winner on Saturday with Hussed lobbing at Narrandera at 25/1. That followed on from Friday’s effort when we found Dame Largo at Geelong at the juicy odds of 40/1. Stay tuned as we update live throughout Sunday.
Port Macquarie R2 #5 Great Grats 5.50 / 2.10 & #6 El Casco 14.00 / 4.10 – decent quality race for the purse on offer and we have two runners here we can back at good odds for a result across the race. Great Greats comes out just on top here and can be forgiven for its last start mild effort at Taree, goes better on this type of ground aswell, best Taree form 3 and 4 starts ago has it in this up to its ears, the value 2nd elect also worth backing on an each way basis is El Casco, bred to appreciate this sort of trip especially at the back end of its 2yo season being by Helmet out of a Hussonet mare who herself was a 6 time winner, good effort last time out 1st up from a spell when a wide margin 2nd to smart one Imperial Eagle at Taree, form references through those finishing further back add big merit, scope for plenty more stretching out to this trip fitter now 2nd up, racing pattern suggests wide gate no major disadvantage, back each way as the 2nd elect just behind Great Grats for a result across the race.
Muswellbrook R1 #1 All Stand 7.50 / 2.10 & #8 Delange 31.00 / 6.00 – good value betting race to kick off the card at Muswellbrook, All Stand is the clear cut top elect here and excellent value at 7.50 / 2.10 as a super solid each way play, he comes into this after a good tune up trial 3rd to Biscuit Time, previously won 2 other trials back in June 2016 & November 2016, looked well above the level required to win a race like this in both those trials, gets in well after the 2kg claim, drawn a very good alley and has shown handles rain effected going, pedigree suggests same being by I Am Invincible out of a Bureaucracy mare, ticks the right boxes, also worth nibbling at the big value runner Delange on an each way basis which can be had at 31.00 / 6.00, deceivingly well bred by Dream Ahead out of a Tiger Hill mare, trial 3rd on heavy going on this track prior to midfield debut effort last time out reads good, if it improves at all off that trial then it is a big chance of showing up somewhere here in the finish at very big odds.
Port Macquarie R3 #2 Hayden Boy 5.50 / 2.00 – got this down to a race of 2 major seen chances and it is likely to be a battle of luck in running that proves the decisive factor here and Hayden Boy looks likely to come out on top in that department here considering Written Song is drawn the carpark out in 14. Hayden Boy is 1st up into this with a real speed pedigree by Stratum out of a Choisir mare, his trial 2nd at Gosford prior to debut back in December 2016 suggests it is well up winning a maiden for this purse level, gets blinkers 1st time and sure to have come in since spelling, goes around as a 5.50 / 2.00 chance which is very good overs, we have it rated as a 3.50 chance, excellent value vs confidence as a strong Place betting proposition at the 2.00 on offer to run top 3.
Sunshine Coast R2 #8 Alastriona 9.50 / 2.50 – 3yo speedily bred Pluck filly who comes into this race 2nd up from a spell on the back of finishing 2.3l 2nd at the Gold Coast behind Killerman’s Run, won a trial by 7.5l on soft going prior to that over 1000m at the Gold Coast running very good time, form references in that trial also stack up strongly, at the good each way odds of 9.50 / 2.80 need to back thinking there may yet be another level to this one yet based on that very good trial form and gets a wet track to boot which suits, good each way value, we have it top rated as a 4.80 chance in a decently open affair.
Muswellbrook R2 #7 Homily 8.00 / 2.70 & #5 Clarencetown 7.50 – very good confidence betting race and some good value to be had, got this race down to only 2 seen major chances in the form of Homily (major elect) and Clarencetown (2nd elect). Back Homily as the top elect on a strong each way basis and back Clarencetown in support of the top elect for a good winning result aswell. Homily flasheed big closing pars last time out at Bathurst over 1100m to finish 3rd in a very strong form race, being by Poet’s Voice out of a Diatribe mare it will come on a fair bit stretching out to 1300m now, clear top elect, Clarencetown carries deceivingly good trial form and is bred to be very good by Dream Ahead out of an Encosta De Lago mare, also gets blinkers 1st time, good value at 7.50 in support of the top elect.
Muswellbrook R3 #12 Apollo Eagle 5.00 & #2 Lapluck 26.00 / 5.80 – playing the value angle here, no doubting the close to even money favorite Kijito is well placed here but Apollo Eagle is just as well placed and does seem to have a few more things going for it and we are pretty certain it has more scope as the major factor leading us to have it on top in front of Kijito, also worth nibbling at Lapluck on an each way basis, the Perry yard place their horses well and Lapluck was good closing off hard over 1400m last start for 3rd at Dubbo in a decent type of maiden, hes also bred to get a trip on the dams side being out of a Nothin Leica Dane mare.
Naracoorte R2 #9 Ali Orphan 3.90 – shapes as the first good thing of the day and goes around at a very good price of 3.90, finished 2nd last start on heavy going over 1700m with a big space back to 3rd, first 2 home clearly superior, blackbook quality run despite being on heavy going flattering margins to a degree, also put in another blackbook run 3 starts ago when 2nd in a big field over 1400m on soft going with another space to 3rd, drops back to the right trip now in what shapes as a weak race for the maiden tag on offer, likely to secure a near perfect trip under the race pace scenario, ticks all the right boxes, we have it rated clear cut on top as a 2.60 elect, currently 3.90, good overs about a strong confidence win betting proposition.
Hobart R7 #1 Issawi – has been below par last 2 starts this 8 time winning Al Samer gelding but gets a 1st time tongue tie and Chantal Willis helps with a 2kg claim, in decently weighted, on best form is clearly too good for these and was showing signs if hitting its gears 1st up before dissapointing 2 most recent starts as earlier mentioned, good value here as a 5.00 chance, we have it marked up at 4.20 on top.
Sale R9 #5 Toorak Cowboy 5.00 / 2.00 – looked very good winning on debut here on this track over this distance last start by 2.7l, came from last that day and was widening the margin the further they went, totally dominant and visually very impressive, minor concern it is 2nd up off such a huge debut effort but simply put that run suggests it is well above the level required to make it 2 on end here, surely the stable know they have a decent one here and they wouldnt be risking it here if it wasn’t right, clear top elect and very good value at 4.80, we have it rated as a 3.50 chance, shorter if not the 2nd up query.
Sunshine Coast R5 #2 First Crush 3.60 (major elect) & #7 Nossuh 6.00 (2nd elect) – we have this race down to 2 seen chances being the major elect First Crush which can be backed to win at the good price of 3.60, also back Nossuh in support of the top elect at 6.00, combined they take up 44% of the betting market making them a real 2.25 chance, we think they are a 1.80 chance to win between them for a result across the race, back both to win for a strong confidence result, good overs exist.
Kalgoorlie R1 #2 Nazareth 1.95 – very well bred type by Bernardini out of a Danehill Dancer mare, comes into this race 1st up from a spell having its 5th career start, showed above average ability 2nd to Bold Success at Bunbury over 1208m tail end of last preparation, very good trial 2nd to Drivin’ Me Wild in preparation for return here and gets into an overly weak maiden for the 15k purse on offer, ticks all the right boxes, biggest certainty of the day so far, might not find a better one, happy to take anything above 1.85 so 1.,95 is a bit of a luxury about such a high confidence betting proposition.
Port Macquarie R7 #7 Gendebien 8.50 / 2.50 & #9 Aspiring 16.00 / 4.00 – big value race in 2, back both on an each way basis for a result across the race, Gendebien rates slightly infront of Aspiring and they should fight the race out. Sorry for short write up, tight on time due to compact tight racing schedule.
Port Macquarie R9 #1 Sheilarized 2.80 (clear major elect) & #6 Ladies Who Lunch 13.00 / 3.60 (nibble each way) – good confidence betting race to be had here with Sheilarized the outright clear cut top elect and offered up as a 2.80 chance which is decent overs as we have it rated as a 2.40 chance, ticks all the right boxes and looks very hard to hold out, if Sheilaraized fails to fire their is one worth nibbling at each way that at worst will run into the placings in the form of Ladies Who Lunch which can be backed as a 13.00 / 3.60 each way chance. Back Sheilarized with good confidence to win the race and nibble at Ladies Who Lunch on an each way basis. Sorry for short write up, tight on time due to compact tight racing schedule.
Naracoorte R7 #3 Athos 4.60 & #6 Surface To Air 8.50 & 2.80 – good value betting race in the last race from Naracoorte where we are carrying a good degree of confidence that we have this down to the right 2 horses and we can back them both for a result across the race, Athos is bred to get this sort of trip strongly being by Awesome Again out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, a real USA staying pedigree, go on very good hard closing 4th at Oakbank vs stronger 2 starts ago over 100m shorter, on a repeat of that effort will prove hard to hold out in deep stretch, he is the proven top elect, Surface To Air rates just below as the value danger and serious other winning chance, good NZ staying pedigree, lightly raced as a staying prospect having only 9th career start, Geelong maiden win 3rd career start over 1900m and 3rd same track next time out to Tossilini both say good enough to win this, back both of these for a result across the race in the win market, Surface To Air is a good value Place bet at 2.80. Surface To Air was a late scratching at the barriers.
Sunshine Coast R9 #2 Produce Me Late 4.80 (major elect), #9 High On You 15.00 / 4.40 & #7 Mogul 13.00 / 4.00 – it sounds like a lot backing three horses in this race but the way we play it and how our confidence levels suggests it works means we walk away with a good collect if we have it right which we think we do, Produce Me Late hit a new career peak last start scoring by a widening 1l margin on this track over 1400m, screaming out for this trip now, the class runner, back as the major elect to win the race at the value odds of 4.80, we have it rated on top at 3.70, the 2nd elect worth playing each way in support at double figure odds is High On You, the lightly tried High Chaparral’s maiden win 1st up 2 starts ago was very good over 1400m at Gatton, scope for plenty more fitter out to this trip 3rd up, forgive run 2nd up, big value as major each way play at 16.00 / 4.60, also worth nibbling at Mogul which is 13.00 / 3.85 in support of the top 2 on an each way basis, we should be collecting here, hopefully from a few different angles and horses.