Welcome to another edition of Late Mail. We take on the Stradbroke Handicap, Queensland Derby and much more across a jam packed Saturday that is sure to throw up some nice winners throughout the day. Check back throughout the course of the day and keep an eye on Twitter aswell for all the latest updates as we bring you the greatest betting information right across Saturday.
Flemington R2 #8 Swampland 8.00 / 2.50 – Swampland has been super consistent this prep and was unlucky not to win two runs back. She held form when beaten not far by a handy type last start and is another who will only need to hold form to go close. Back with a minor degree of confidence, initially we also liked Soho Ruby in this race aswell which has been scratched, so overall confidence is slightly diminished, play accordingly.
Flemington R3 #1 Husson Eagle 7.50 / 2.40 – Very good last start when strong from the back in deep form race. Not disgraced in tougher race prior coming off a forgive job 3 runs back. A quality sprinter who is rarely far from the money and is always competitive in tougher company. Kept fresh and stays at 1000m are both ticks and the smaller field will mean he stays within striking distance. There looks speed on paper which suits and no doubt he will be powering home late. He looks a strong each/way play at what look luxury odds in this 9 horse field.
Doomben R4 #13 Miss Debutante 8.00 / 2.80 & #16 My True Love 17.00 / 4.60 – the overall depth of this field is very good for the tag on offer with a lot of lightly raced types who have big scope for further improvement and it is 2 runners that fit that exact bill we side with here for a result across the race, Miss Debutante is very well bred by Fastnet Rock out of a More Than Ready mare, total forgive run last time out 4th in the G3 Glenlogan, go on 1st up effort flashing big closing pars from off the pace to win the Listed Denises Joy over 1100m at Scone by a widening 2.4l, draws perfectly in the 7 alley to secure one of the runs of the race stalking from midfield, totally looking for this trip, excellent value as one of 2 top elects at 8.00 / 2.80, My True Love is another Fastnet Rock 3yo filly and she is out of a well related and classy Encosta De Lago mare Lectrice, she came of age last time out scoring by 2.8l at Randwick over 1400m on soft going, she was clearly superior that day and the depth out of the race looks good, still lightly raced has scope for more, if it can overcome the wide gate which is every chance of happening under the pace scenario it will prove to be the one they have to run down in deep stretch at big odds of 17.00 / 4.60. Back both runners for a result across the race.
Flemington R5 #11 Portion Control 7.00 / 2.40 – knocking on the door now after hitting the line strong last start over 1600m and steps to 1800m here which looks ideal. Strips fitter and gets 2kg swing on race favourite Zourkhan. Still a lightly raced improver and looks to have found a very winnable race. Ticks all the box’s and represents super value at around the $7 mark.
Kembla Grange R2 #3 Cudabeen 2.20 – lightly raced I Am Invincible 3yo filly from the Snowden yard who comes into this race 1st up from a spell on the back of finishing a close up 1.4l 3rd to Dothraki and Wilcannia in a 900m trial on soft going at Rosehill, field of 10 that day and put a further 4l margin to 4th and further back, top 3 clearly superior, as per normal Snowden runners this one offers up scope for plenty more and will come on significantly out of that trial, clear cut top elect and fairly confident it will get through the ground despite failing only start on heavy, had genuine excuses, goes around as a 2.20 chance which is about the right price considering the heavy going, back with a good degree of confidence, only the track can bring it undone.
Morphettville R2 #11 Manhattan Manners 26.00 / 5.80 – debut runner by Manhattan Rain out of an unraced Redoute’s Choice mare, 2nd dam is Tango Fire a lightly raced well related Anabaa mare, represents the astute Peter Hardacre yard who places his horses exceptionally well so it is well worth noting when he debuts one in town with no public trial form and claims 3kg with a good apprentice hoop like Chelsea Hall, especially when they are offering up 26.00 & 5.80, Manhattan Rain produced a Slipper winner this season and the bottom half of this pedigree screams 2yo speed, nibble at each way at the big odds on offer.
Doomben R5 #14 Savvan 19.00 / 5.50 & #11 Top Of The Range 31.00 / 8.50 – big value betting affair here where we go to the NZ bred runners both by Savabeel in the form of Savvan & Top Of The Range to look for the big value winning angle, the overall depth of this race is not great for the tag on offer and it is likely one of the lightly raced ones will improve here and surprise at odds, Savvan is out of the top class Van Nistlerooy mare Ruud van Slaats, her win 3 starts ago at Canterbury suggested she had hit a new level and looked stakes class on the make and then she failed to fire 2 Queensland starts since, James Cummings persists, at the odds warrants one more chance and gets every chance drawn the inside gate, likely run of the race, Top Of The Range is out of a Montjeu mare and he won 2 on end at Pakenham and Sandown and his Sandown win 3 starts ago also suggest this one looked blacktype on the make, drops back in trip after not getting the Grand Prix 2200m trip in heavy going last start, if it finds that Sandown level it will likely show up somewhere in the top 3, blow out chance, back both each way for a result across the race.
Kembla Grange R4 #3 Metallic Moon 4.80 / 2.30 – lightly raced well bred type by Snitzel out of a Platinum Scissors mare, comes into this race having its 3rd career start and 2nd up off the back of a long spell on the back of finishing 3rd at Nowra last time out, came from well back over the 1100m trip that day clearly strongest on the line, good form refs come out of that race and should improve considerably now fitter stepping up to 1200m, bred to handle the wet and likely to race a lot closer in a real sit and sprint affair under the likely race pace scenario, we have it top rated as a 3.50 chance, decent overs on offer at 4.80 & 2.30 each way, only 2 place dividends on offer in field of 6 runners.
Flemington R6 #2 Kiwia 5.00 / 2.10 #12 Tell The Truth 9.50 / 3.20 – Kiwia looks city class and was impressive when strong late over 1600m at Cranbourne last start. He won his first two career starts and looks a smart son of Reset trained by the in form Darren Weir. He gets in well with the claim and rise to 2000m looks ideal. Tell The Truth is another lightly raced improved who looks as though he will enjoy the step up to 2000m. He was strong to the line two runs back when winning over 1600m and had mixed luck when not beaten far last start, again over 1600m. Another who gets in well with the claim and looks well suited. Back both selections for a results across the race.
Kembla Grange R5 #2 Alik 4.20 / 2.00 – got a feeling the short priced fav from the Godolphin camp might be a little bit vulnerable on the rain effected going, Alik comes into this having its 2nd career start, total forgive run on debut, go on trial 2nd prior at Rosehill only 0.8l off Complacency, the form coming out of that trial looks the strongest exposed line here, bred to appreciate this sort of trip by All Too Hard out of a Sindaar mare, blinkers come off first time, ticks a lot of boxes, we have it top rated as a 3.20 chance, good overs on offer at 4.00 / 2.00, only 2 place dividends.
Doomben R7 #9 Monasterio 23.00 / 6.50 & #10 Wu Gok 31.00 / 8.50 – going the Chris Waller angle here, Monasterio is a NZ bred by Savabeel out of a Falbrav mare so it is bred to stay the trip of the Derby, hit a new career peak last start flashing big closing pars over 2000m at Randwick to win by 0.5l, form refs out of that race give lines back to Egg Tart the Oaks winner and also trained by Waller, he isnt here without being considered a live chance by the stable, Wu Gok is even bigger odds and also trained by Waller, also overly well bred by Sebring out of a Redoute’s Choice mare who herself is out of an Australian Oaks winning Thunder Gulch mare Tully Thunder, won a trial over 1200m 8 days ago in prep for this, back in tune now after showing best form winning 2 on end at Newcastle & Warwick Farm over this trip, form refs to Egg Tart exist out of the Warwick Farm win just like the other one we are interested in here, back both these 2 at the big odds of 23.00 / 6.50 and 31.00 / 8.50 respectively each way for a result across the race.
Flemington R7 #9 Zebulon 14.00 / 4.30 – lightly raced with scope to improve and was good two back first up when not beaten far over 1440m. Second up had no luck in G1 over 1200m when caught wide throughout. Back to 1400m here and is drawn to swoop which may suit here at Flemington late in the day with good speed on paper also. A smart type who has been competitive in strong Company before and looks to have found a suitable race here. Strips fitter and will be powering home late. Looks well over the odds here at $14/$4.3, he looks a strong each/way play. Betting up the place.
Flemington R8 #3 Dam Ready 4.60 / 2.00 – Resumes here after winning a recent Tatura trial and was placed in stronger company first up last prep. Always goes well fresh and the 1000m is his only winning distance range. He gets in well with the claim here and having drawn out wide in this straight race looks ideal. He ticks all the box’s here and looks primed for a big first up run in a suitable race. The current odds have him a strong each/way play with $2 available the place. If he does firm Raceday we are happy to back him straight out the win.
Doomben R8 #1 Clearly Innocent 5.50 / 2.10 – draws the carpark but gets the services of Hugh Bowman, was totally dominant last time out winning the G1 Kingsford Smith by a widening 3l coming from near last over 1300m, put big spaces back through the field, Black Caviar like performance and admittedly it was on bottomless ground but this lightly tried Not A Single Doubt 5yo gelding is now 9 from 15, he is the clear cut top elect and only needs to overcome the alley to win here, on that basis the 5.50 is good value, we have it clear on top as a 3.70 chance, much shorter if it draws an alley, excellent value vs confidence for the Place at the 2.10 on offer to finish top 3.
Gold Coast R8 #7 Capo Di Tutti 16.00 / 3.00 – deceivingly well bred lightly raced improver by Written Tycoon out of a Black Minnaloushe mare, good speed pedigree, close up 0.3l 3rd in a trial at Doomben suggests is ready for this for this 1st up tilt, impressive breaking its maiden tag at the Sunshine Coast 3 starts ago, represents an astute yard, playing the value angle hoping the short price fav was fluked and flattered winning by a big space on debut (ran slow time compared to other races same distance that day), so backing Capo Di Tutti as the value elect each way at 16.00 / 3/00.
Doomben R9 #4 Top Of My List 6.00 / 2.30 & #9 Chocante 18.00 / 5.40 – Top Of My List is a well bred lightly tried staying prospect on the up who gave off the impression last time out it may be G1 on the make and if that is the case then it should handle this level as the clear top elect. The value contender is the NZ import Chocante, its win 5 starts ago suggests it is well up to a G2 staying event of this overall level, Doomben 3rd 2 starts ago suggested was right on track, forgive run last time, the big value contender, back both for a result across the race.
Gold Coast R10 #6 Iron Craft 17.00 / 4.60 & #13 Witches Wit 19.00 / 5.00 – both of these are ligthtly raced improvers by Rothesay looking for this trip who get into this race well placed, both good double figure odds, back both on an each way basis for a result across the race, both are equal top rated and rate well above the level required to win here.
Carnarvon R4 #5 Balboa’s Girl 4.00 – gets in very well weighted here dropping 3kg on last start when win 1st up over this track and distance, still a lightly raced proposition having won 2 from 10 and carries formlines to suggest it is well above the level required to win here, 1st up win suggests capable of scope for more to hit level shown at Geraldton when scoring over 1400m 3 starts ago, just as effective 1200m trip it faces here, clearly the one to beat, top rated for us as a 2.50 chance, on offer ar 4.00, good overs about a hard to beat proposition.
Belmont R7 #2 Entrechat 8.50 / 2.70 – well bred type by Street Cry out of a Covetous mare, winner 6 from 26 now and really in form since stretching out ot this sort of trip winning last 2 on end, rises 3.5kg here but looks the class runner the way it put them away last start, form out of last start 2.2l win reads strong, very good each way value on offer as a 8.50 & 2.70 chance each way. We have it top rated as a 4.20 chance.